This is an independent test of a novel strategy from David Varadi: Inflation Compass. It builds on his earlier Growth and Inflation strategy by adding a direct market-based measure of expected inflation. We’re testing two versions of his new strategy: Original and Enhanced (more on this later). Backtested results from 1990 follow. Results are net […]
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Margin Debt Is at an All-Time High, What Does That Mean?
“The current extreme in margin debt offers one way to gauge the speculative exuberance of investors.” – John Hussman Thinking about this chart from John Hussman, showing margin debt relative to GDP spiking to all-time highs, with previous such instances seeming to foreshadow major market downturns: It’s very easy to look at a chart like […]