Every strategy and Model Portfolio now includes a Return Contribution analysis, showing each asset’s contribution to overall annual return. We further aggregate results by asset category and risk on/off, as well as estimate the drag from “trading friction” (transaction costs + slippage). Let’s walk through a sample return contribution analysis using the most popular strategy […]
Blog
New Feature: Model Portfolio Withdrawal Rates
We’ve added Safe and Perpetual Withdrawal Rates to your custom Model Portfolios. New here? Learn more: What is a Model Portfolio? What are Withdrawal Rates? The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) measures the max amount that could have been withdrawn each year in retirement (with an annual adjustment for inflation) without running out of money over […]
“Surfing the Equity Curve”: Using Trend-Following to Switch Strategies On and Off
This is the third installment in a series on selecting Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies based on recent performance. Read Part 1 and Part 2. We advocate combining multiple TAA strategies together into “Model Portfolios” to limit the risk of any single strategy underperforming. In our previous studies we selected strategies for our Model Portfolio […]
Selecting TAA Strategies Based on Recent Performance, Part 2: Recent Sharpe Ratio
This is the second installment in a multipart series on selecting Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies based on recent performance. Read Part 1. We advocate combining multiple TAA strategies together into “Model Portfolios” to limit the risk of any single strategy underperforming. In our previous study we selected strategies for our portfolio with the highest […]
Selecting TAA Strategies Based on Recent Performance (Part 1)
This is the first of a multipart series examining the selection of Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies based on recent performance. We are proponents of combining multiple TAA strategies together into what we call Model Portfolios to limit the risk of any single strategy going of the rails. In this study we ask, what if, […]
Meb Faber’s “Tactical Yield”, Simple and Intuitive
This is a test of Meb Faber’s “Tactical Yield” from T-Bills and Chill…Most of the Time. Backtested results from 1930 follow compared to a benchmark of 50% int-term US Treasuries (IEF) and 50% US corporate bonds (LQD). Results are net of transaction costs – see backtest assumptions. Learn about what we do and follow 100+ […]
David Varadi’s “Growth and Inflation Sector Timing”, a Wildcard Strategy
This is a test of a novel strategy from David Varadi: Growth and Inflation Sector Timing. Backtested results from 1991 follow. Results are net of transaction costs – see backtest assumptions. Learn about what we do and follow 100+ asset allocation strategies like this one in near real-time. Logarithmically-scaled. Click for linearly-scaled results. Members know […]
Diversification Has Been a Huge Drag on TAA Performance for 15+ Years
(…but that won’t always be the case) Over the last 15+ years, diversification (as opposed to market timing) has been a huge drag on Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) performance, to the tune of 2.1% per year compared to the 60/40 benchmark. That “diversification drag” has been mostly due to US stock market dominance over almost […]
Why TAA is Performing Well Now: Outperformance Attribution
We track 100+ published Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies, so these results are broadly representative of TAA as an investment style. TAA did reasonably well in 2025 and has done very well in these early days of 2026, relative to the ubiquitous 60/40 benchmark. How much of that is due to TAA correctly timing the […]
Member Note: Our Approach to Selecting Strategies for the Platform
A long-time member who has been a valuable source of feedback over the years sent us the following note about the most recent strategy added to the platform: Gold Cross-Asset Momentum. The strategy has performed poorly relative to other strategies on the platform. You’ve turned down other stuff that was marginal like this, so I’m […]