Most Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies trade once per month. That’s by design. Short-term market movement is mostly noise, and trying to time every zig and zag is a fool’s errand. A unique feature of our platform is the ability to follow these monthly strategies on any day of the month. We’re not just executing […]
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Taming the Wildcard: David Varadi’s “Inflation Compass”
This is an independent test of a novel strategy from David Varadi: Inflation Compass. It builds on his earlier Growth and Inflation strategy by adding a direct market-based measure of expected inflation. We’re testing two versions of his new strategy: Original and Enhanced (more on this later). Backtested results from 1990 follow. Results are net […]
Margin Debt Is at an All-Time High, What Does That Mean?
“The current extreme in margin debt offers one way to gauge the speculative exuberance of investors.” – John Hussman Thinking about this chart from John Hussman, showing margin debt relative to GDP spiking to all-time highs, with previous such instances seeming to foreshadow major market downturns: It’s very easy to look at a chart like […]
Investing in “Distressed” TAA Strategies (Redux)
This is the fourth installment in our series on selecting Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies based on recent performance. Read parts 1, 2 and 3. In our previous studies we selected strategies based on recent return. In this study, we select “distressed” strategies, or strategies nearing or exceeding their previous max drawdown. We looked at […]
New Feature: Return Contribution Analysis
Every strategy and Model Portfolio now includes a Return Contribution analysis, showing each asset’s contribution to overall annual return. We further aggregate results by asset category and risk on/off, as well as estimate the drag from “trading friction” (transaction costs + slippage). Let’s walk through a sample return contribution analysis using the most popular strategy […]
New Feature: Model Portfolio Withdrawal Rates
We’ve added Safe and Perpetual Withdrawal Rates to your custom Model Portfolios. New here? Learn more: What is a Model Portfolio? What are Withdrawal Rates? The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) measures the max amount that could have been withdrawn each year in retirement (with an annual adjustment for inflation) without running out of money over […]
“Surfing the Equity Curve”: Using Trend-Following to Switch Strategies On and Off
This is the third installment in a series on selecting Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies based on recent performance. Read Part 1 and Part 2. We advocate combining multiple TAA strategies together into “Model Portfolios” to limit the risk of any single strategy underperforming. In our previous studies we selected strategies for our Model Portfolio […]
Selecting TAA Strategies Based on Recent Performance, Part 2: Recent Sharpe Ratio
This is the second installment in a multipart series on selecting Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies based on recent performance. Read Part 1. We advocate combining multiple TAA strategies together into “Model Portfolios” to limit the risk of any single strategy underperforming. In our previous study we selected strategies for our portfolio with the highest […]
Selecting TAA Strategies Based on Recent Performance (Part 1)
This is the first of a multipart series examining the selection of Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies based on recent performance. We are proponents of combining multiple TAA strategies together into what we call Model Portfolios to limit the risk of any single strategy going of the rails. In this study we ask, what if, […]
Meb Faber’s “Tactical Yield”, Simple and Intuitive
This is a test of Meb Faber’s “Tactical Yield” from T-Bills and Chill…Most of the Time. Backtested results from 1930 follow compared to a benchmark of 50% int-term US Treasuries (IEF) and 50% US corporate bonds (LQD). Results are net of transaction costs – see backtest assumptions. Learn about what we do and follow 100+ […]