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Things That Don't Work

Beware Strategies That Fall Down on Good Data

Sources of long-term historical data are few and far between. Because it’s been generously provided for free, one of the most often used is data from Professor French (of Fama-French fame). Others include Shiller and Ibbotson. These datasets are fine for a first pass at testing out ideas, but they often don’t remotely match up […]

Filed Under: TAA Strategies, Things That Don't Work

Sector Rotation with Fama-French Alphas

Allocate Smartly tests and tracks asset allocation strategies sourced from books, academic papers and other publications. Most of the strategies that we test though never make it on to this site. There are a variety of reasons that might be, but often it’s simply because they’re not very good. Usually we just let those strategies […]

Filed Under: TAA Strategies, Things That Don't Work

Timing TAA Strategies Based on Relative Strength: A Suboptimal Approach

We track a wide range of tactical asset allocation strategies in near real-time (41 and counting), which members can combine into their own custom portfolios. We provide members with a wealth of data to understand how each strategy fits into a coherent trading plan, but we don’t tell members the absolute “best” ones to trade […]

Filed Under: Things That Don't Work

The Perils of Backtesting with Unrealistic Data

As readers hear us repeat often, our results tend to be less optimistic than you’ll find elsewhere. We do our best to show backtested results that are as realistic as possible (even though showing results that are as good as possible would probably be better for business). That’s partially a result of simple things, like accounting […]

Filed Under: Random Thoughts, Things That Don't Work

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New from Our Blog

  • Our Take on “The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns” May 28, 2023
  • A Key New Momentum Measure to Consider: Distance from 1-Year High May 21, 2023
  • Mark Virag’s “Momentum Based Balancing”: Relative Momentum Taken to the Extreme May 16, 2023

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