We’ll be talking about Paul Novell’s flagship SPY-COMP strategy on the blog tomorrow. The strategy uses monthly economic data, like the kind available from the FRED database. We’ve covered a handful of strategies like this in the past (think Philosophical Economics’ Growth Trend-Timing). Whenever we do, we invariably get a ton of questions, because it […]
Various Miscellany
Last Week (Painfully) Illustrated the Importance of Non-Binary Portfolios
This is one of my favorite takes of the last week. It was tweeted on Friday, which held two distinctions: (1) It capped off a helluva scary week, and (2) It just so happened to be month-end, when many TAA strategies trade by default. The managers I envy the LEAST today are those who run […]
Investing in “Distressed” TAA Strategies
In response to a member question: Have you ever looked at a systematic approach that invested only in tactical asset allocation strategies that were experiencing a significant drawdown? We know that performance chasing is a flawed behavioral bias, so an approach like this could exploit it. We always appreciate thoughtful questions like this from members. […]
Sneak Peak: Robustness to Noise
This is an early preview of a new analytical tool we’ll be adding to our platform later this month. Learn more about what we do. Broadly speaking, the goal of tactical asset allocation is to take advantage of broad market trends via trend-following and/or momentum. Those trends can be difficult to identify because of “noise”; […]
We’ve Added Three New Strategies
There’s a little something for everyone in this latest batch of new strategies. We’ll be exploring all three strategies in more detail on this blog in the coming month. 1. Movement Capital’s Composite Strategy (member link to backtest) Movement Capital is new on our radar, but has quickly become one of our go-to resources for […]
Allocate Smartly Just Got Even Better
We completed a BIG site upgrade over the weekend. 90% of the changes are behind the scenes. We refactored our code top to bottom. This site has come a long ways from its humble beginnings and it needed some spring cleaning. This will also help with scalability, to make sure we stay a few steps […]
The Threat of Rising Rates and the Impact on TAA vs B&H Investing
We’ve written a lot here and on our sister site BetterBuyAndHold.com about the threat of rising interest rates. You can read some of our past work projecting returns for Treasury ETFs and other interest rate sensitive assets here and here. In a nutshell, assuming that we’re near the tail end of this 37+ year march […]
Member Analysis: The Effect of Combining Strategies on Timing Luck
We enjoy hearing from members about their experiences using our platform to analyze and combine tactical asset allocation strategies. We do a bad job of sharing that feedback with other members, and that’s a shame, because there’s often a lot of wisdom in it. So let’s change that. What follows is an email from member […]
Asset Allocation Roundup
Four recent asset allocation articles (tactical or otherwise) that you might have missed: 1. Bond ETFs in an Era of Rising Rates (Better Buy & Hold) This is our first post from our new platform BetterBuyAndHold.com. Bonds face stiff headwinds in the coming years, and many will underperform what investors have grown accustomed to. That’s […]
New from Our Team: BetterBuyAndHold.com
We’re happy to announce the launch of a new service from our team: BetterBuyAndHold.com We recognize that even TAA investors often need a stable, static allocation to form the core of their portfolio. Our new service is dedicated to building better, more realistic buy and hold allocations. We do that using two key statistical techniques: […]